China economy to rebound in 2013: survey

BEIJING: China's economy is poised finally to end a long downward trend in 2013, economists polled by AFP say, as the new communist leadership vows to retool the nation's investment-led development model and promote a "happy life" for all.

The world's second-largest economy is not expected to return to double-digit growth, but the economists' predictions are a welcome spot of good news in a financial world assailed by the eurozone debt crisis and lacklustre recovery in the United States.

After seven consecutive quarters of slowing growth, China's gross domestic product (GDP) will rise by 8.0 per cent in 2013, according to the median forecast of 15 economists surveyed by AFP. The poll also projected 7.7 per cent growth for 2012.

The figures would outpace the government's 7.5 per cent growth target for 2012 -- but are well below the 9.3 per cent recorded in 2011 and 10.4 per cent in 2010.

Maintaining growth is all-important for China's communist leaders, who derive much of their claims to legitimacy from the country's reform-led economic rise, which has lifted hundreds of millions of people out of poverty over the past three decades.

The rebound comes as China formally wraps up a once-in-a-decade leadership change in March when Xi Jinping, who was named Communist Party chief in November, takes over as president and Li Keqiang becomes premier in charge of day-to-day administration.

Xi, in his first public appearance after being chosen to lead the party, said China's citizens "want their children to have sound growth, have good jobs and lead a more enjoyable life. To meet their desire for a happy life is our mission."

China's stunning economic transformation has long been fuelled by heavy state investment in railways, airports, bridges and buildings, as well as an emphasis on manufacturing and exports.

But it is now trying to promote demand from its own increasingly well-off consumers as the economy's main driver. And the Communist Party says it recognises the need to encompass the have-nots who have failed to share in the boom as a rich-poor gap opens up.

The National Bureau of Statistics is due to announce GDP figures for the fourth quarter and the whole of 2012 on Friday.

For the final quarter of last year, the median forecast in the AFP survey was 7.8 per cent, up from official third-quarter growth of 7.4 per cent -- which was the lowest figure since early 2009.

"The new leaders themselves would like economic growth to not be slower than 2012... in their first year," Chen Xingdong, a Beijing-based economist with French bank BNP Paribas who is expecting 2013 growth of 8.3 per cent, told AFP.

Stronger monthly data during the fourth quarter, including industrial output and retail sales, has fanned optimism the worst is over, as did new single-month highs for imports and exports in December.

But the economy still faces challenges such as unresolved structural problems including overcapacity and reliance on investment-driven growth, said Yao Wei, Hong Kong-based economist with Societe Generale.

"We can't get over-optimistic over the current recovery," she said.

China's economy averaged GDP growth of 10 per cent in the decade to 2010. A slower rate of 7.0-8.0 per cent is seen by economists as part of China's natural economic evolution as spending on projects such as transport and utility networks is reined in.

But market optimism over China's prospects risks being disappointed if in 2013 "the recovery remains centred on infrastructure and real-estate investment rather than consumption", wrote Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics.

Some also question how serious the government is about reforming the economy, as well as other challenges it has vowed to pursue, including cracking down on corruption.

"The current difficulty we have with the policymakers is that the focus is on changing the perception and hoping that the people believe," said Andy Xie, a Shanghai-based independent economist.

"It shows that real change is very hard to do. So you shift to the propaganda department to see if they can do the job."

- AFP/ck

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Anju Ilyasi's death: HC stays medical board proceedings

NEW DELHI: In a relief to TV serial producer Suhaib Ilyasi, the Delhi high court has stayed the proceedings of a medical board constituted to examine afresh the reasons of his wife Anju Ilyasi's death in 2000.

Ilyasi, also the editor-in-chief of Bureaucracy Today magazine, has been facing trial as an accused for last 12 years in dowry death case of his wife Anju Ilyasi.

She had been rushed to a hospital on January 11, 2000 with fatal stab wounds allegedly received by her at her East Delhi residence.

"Issue notice to respondent department (Delhi police) for March 14. Meanwhile, the (medical) board proceedings have been stayed," Justice Kailash Gambhir said.

Ilyasi, who had shot into limelight after hosting TV serial on crime, 'India's Most Wanted,' alleged even after the lapse of over 12 years when the trial is at its fag end, police, without getting sanction from the lower court, constituted a medical board to examine afresh the reasons of his wife's death.

The previous medical board had given split opinion on her death, Ilyasi's counsel said, adding that "the formation of another board was an act of contempt."

Ilyasi also alleged that a police officer, who was one of the investigating officers in the case, still "interferes" with the judicial and enquiry processes despite the fact that he is deployed as DCP in the Prime Minister's security contingent.

The trial court would shortly start hearing final arguments in the case in which penal provisions relating to dowry death and subjecting a woman to cruelty have been invoked against Ilyasi.

Earlier, a trial court had rejected Anju's mother Rukma Singh's plea to invoke additional murder charge against her son-in-law Ilyasi, saying no fresh evidence has emerged against him.

The court had also noted that there was no proof to support the allegation that Ilyasi had tampered with evidence.

Prior to this also, the court had rejected a similar plea. Ilyasi was arrested on March 28, 2000 and later, charges were framed against him in the case after his sister-in-law and mother-in-law alleged that he used to torture his wife for dowry.

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Pictures: Civil War Shipwreck Revealed by Sonar

Photograph by Jesse Cancelmo

A fishing net, likely only decades old, drapes over machinery that once connected the Hatteras' pistons to its paddle wheels, said Delgado.

From archived documents, the NOAA archaeologist learned that Blake, the ship's commander, surrendered as his ship was sinking. "It was listing to port, [or the left]," Delgado said. The Alabama took the wounded and the rest of the crew and put them in irons.

The officers were allowed to keep their swords and wander the deck as long as they promised not to lead an uprising against the Alabama's crew, he added.

From there, the Alabama dropped off their captives in Jamaica, leaving them to make their own way back to the U.S.

Delgado wants to dig even further into the crew of the Hatteras. He'd like see if members of the public recognize any of the names on his list of crew members and can give him background on the men.

"That's why I do archaeology," he said.

(Read about other Civil War battlefields in National Geographic magazine.)

Published January 11, 2013

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Poisoned Lottery Winner's Kin Were Suspicious

Urooj Khan had just brought home his $425,000 lottery check when he unexpectedly died the following day. Now, certain members of Khan's family are speaking publicly about the mystery -- and his nephew told ABC News they knew something was not right.

"He was a healthy guy, you know?" said the nephew, Minhaj Khan. "He worked so hard. He was always going about his business and, the thing is: After he won the lottery and the next day later he passes away -- it's awkward. It raises some eyebrows."

The medical examiner initially ruled Urooj Khan, 46, an immigrant from India who owned dry-cleaning businesses in Chicago, died July 20, 2012, of natural causes. But after a family member demanded more tests, authorities in November found a lethal amount of cyanide in his blood, turning the case into a homicide investigation.

"When we found out there was cyanide in his blood after the extensive toxicology reports, we had to believe that ... somebody had to kill him," Minhaj Khan said. "It had to happen, because where can you get cyanide?"

In Photos: Biggest Lotto Jackpot Winners

Authorities could be one step closer to learning what happened to Urooj Khan. A judge Friday approved an order to exhume his body at Rosehill Cemetery in Chicago as early as Thursday to perform further tests.

Lottery Winner Murdered: Widow Questioned By Police Watch Video

Moments after the court hearing, Urooj Khan's sister, Meraj Khan, remembered her brother as the kind of person who would've shared his jackpot with anyone. Speaking at the Cook County Courthouse, she hoped the exhumation would help the investigation.

"It's very hard because I wanted my brother to rest in peace, but then we have to have justice served," she said, according to ABC News station WLS in Chicago. "So if that's what it takes for him to bring justice and peace, then that's what needs to be done."

Khan reportedly did not have a will. With the investigation moving forward, his family is waging a legal fight against his widow, Shabana Ansari, 32, over more than $1 million, including Urooj Khan's lottery winnings, as well as his business and real estate holdings.

Khan's brother filed a petition Wednesday to a judge asking Citibank to release information about Khan's assets to "ultimately ensure" that [Khan's] minor daughter from a prior marriage "receives her proper share."

Ansari may have tried to cash the jackpot check after Khan's death, according to court documents, which also showed Urooj Khan's family is questioning if the couple was ever even legally married.

Ansari, Urooj Khan's second wife, who still works at the couple's dry cleaning business, has insisted they were married legally.

She has told reporters the night before her husband died, she cooked a traditional Indian meal for him and their family, including Khan's daughter and Ansari's father. Not feeling well, Khan retired early, Ansari told the Chicago Sun-Times, falling asleep in a chair, waking up in agony, then collapsing in the middle of the night. She said she called 911.

"It has been an incredibly hard time," she told ABC News earlier this week. "We went from being the happiest the day we got the check. It was the best sleep I've had. And then the next day, everything was gone.

"I am cooperating with the investigation," Ansari told ABC News. "I want the truth to come out."

Ansari has not been named a suspect, but her attorney, Steven Kozicki, said investigators did question her for more than four hours.

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Jay Rockefeller, likely the last of a political dynasty

Uncle Nelson was vice president. Uncle Winthrop a governor. Great-grandfather Nelson a senator.

Political bloodlines, he had.

But the great American electoral dynasty that abruptly announced its end Friday, or at least signaled what looks to be a long, long pause, always evoked more. That name on the ballot — Rockefeller — meant money. It meant epic-scale success. It meant everything.

And it meant that Jay Rockefeller wasn’t ever going to be just some Democratic senator from West Virginia. Rockefeller, who said Friday that he would not seek reelection in 2014 after nearly three decades in the Senate, was always going to be the oil titan John D. Rockefeller’s great-grandson, too. One of the heirs to a legendary fortune.

“He’s proud of being a Rockefeller. He talks about his uncles and his grandfather, about that legacy. It’s an important part of who he is and how he thinks about himself,” Rockefeller’s longtime political adviser, Geoff Garin, said in an interview. “He found a way to be a Rockefeller that was about serving people.”

Dynasties like these roll across American political history. Not just Rockefellers, but Adamses and Kennedys and Bushes. A nation formed to escape power granted as a birthright still embraces power that follows the contours of a family tree. Voters even expect it, and so do political scions.

“It’s so predictable!” said Stephen Hess, a Brookings Institution senior fellow emeritus and author of the book “America’s Political Dynasties.” “It’s daddy’s business and increasingly it’ll be mommy’s business, too.”

For Hess, each dynasty takes on a different aura. There were the “crafty” Roosevelts, headlined by a couple of presidents — Franklin Delano and Theodore — and his favorites, the Tafts, whose standout, William Howard, was about the “nicest” guy ever to occupy the Oval Office, in Hess’s estimation, and who also managed to become chief justice of the Supreme Court.

The Rockefellers were almost incidental dynasty builders, Hess said. “That generation — the robber barons, if you want to call them that — wasn’t interested in politics. Politics was something you could marry into.”

Indeed, John D. Rockefeller’s only son married the daughter of Nelson Aldrich, a prominent Republican senator of the late 1800s and early 1900s who wielded tremendous influence over monetary policies. Their son, Nelson Aldrich Rockefeller, became governor of New York and was Gerald R. Ford’s vice president. Another son, Winthrop Rockefeller, became governor of Arkansas.

“My great-grandfather, John D. Rockefeller, worked at it very, very hard. There’s an ethic in the Rockefeller family of hard work,” Jay Rockefeller wrote in an e-mail late Friday. “It’s expected that everybody work hard. And there has been a tradition of public service.”

John D. “Jay” Rockefeller IV entered politics unconventionally, drawn into that sphere by his experiences as a volunteer for VISTA (the precursor of Americorps) in Emmons, W.Va., a small coal mining town. “Coming to West Virginia was life-changing for him,” Garin said. “West Virginia exposed him to a whole new world that broadened his world; and in a lot of respects it gave his career a defining purpose.”

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Basketball: Lakers' Bryant and wife Vanessa reconcile

LOS ANGELES: Los Angeles Lakers superstar Kobe Bryant and his wife, Vanessa, confirmed they have reconciled in posts on social media.

Vanessa Bryant, who had filed for divorce from the NBA star in December of 2011, posted a message on Instagram, and Bryant said on his Facebook page that the couple were back together.

"We are pleased to announce that we have reconciled," Vanessa Bryant wrote. "Our divorce action will be dismissed. We are looking forward to our future together. Kobe & Vanessa."

"I am happy to say that Vanessa and I are moving on with our lives together as a family," Bryant posted on Facebook. "When the show ends and the music stops, the journey is made beautiful by having that someone to share it with.

"Thank you all for your support and prayers!" Bryant added.

The Bryants married in 2000. Vanessa stood by her husband after he was charged with sexually assaulting a Colorado woman in 2003, charges that were eventually dropped.

Vanessa Bryant filed papers in Orange County Superior Court in Santa Ana, California, in December of 2011 citing "irreconcilable differences" as the reason for seeking a divorce.

However, the two continued to work together for various charitable causes and the celebrity website TMZ reported last June that they were working towards a reconciliation.

They have two daughters, nine-year-old Natalia and six-year-old Gianna.

- AFP/al

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Snowfall halts traffic on Srinagar-Jammu highway

SRINAGAR: The Kashmir Valley on Saturday experienced fresh snowfall, forcing authorities to close the Srinagar-Jammu highway.

Light snowfall started here and other towns of the valley in the morning. There were reports of moderate snowfall in the higher reaches, especially in the Pir Panjal mountain range in south Kashmir.

The Met Office here issued an advisory predicting moderate to heavy snowfall in the Pir Panjal mountain range and light snowfall in some other areas of the state.

"Rain and snowfall will occur in the Kashmir Valley due to the western disturbance active over the state. There will be light snowfall in some areas including Srinagar. But moderate to heavy snowfall is expected in the higher reaches," Sonam Lotus, director of the Met Office here told IANS.

Authorities said the movement of vehicles on the Srinagar-Jammu highway has been halted because of accumulation of snow in the Bannihal sector of the road in Anantnag district.

Due to a cloud cover, the minimum temperature rose across the state.

The night temperature in Srinagar was a little above the freezing point at 0.4 degree Celsius.

In Pahalgam, the minimum temperature was -2 degrees Celsius. It was -5.2 degrees Celsius in Gulmarg, -12.6 degrees Celsius in Leh and -14.4 degrees Celsius in Kargil town.

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Pictures: Civil War Shipwreck Revealed by Sonar

Photograph by Jesse Cancelmo

A fishing net, likely only decades old, drapes over machinery that once connected the Hatteras' pistons to its paddle wheels, said Delgado.

From archived documents, the NOAA archaeologist learned that Blake, the ship's commander, surrendered as his ship was sinking. "It was listing to port, [or the left]," Delgado said. The Alabama took the wounded and the rest of the crew and put them in irons.

The officers were allowed to keep their swords and wander the deck as long as they promised not to lead an uprising against the Alabama's crew, he added.

From there, the Alabama dropped off their captives in Jamaica, leaving them to make their own way back to the U.S.

Delgado wants to dig even further into the crew of the Hatteras. He'd like see if members of the public recognize any of the names on his list of crew members and can give him background on the men.

"That's why I do archaeology," he said.

(Read about other Civil War battlefields in National Geographic magazine.)

Published January 11, 2013

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CDC: Flu Outbreak Could Be Waning

The flu season appears to be waning in some parts of the country, but that doesn't mean it won't make a comeback in the next few weeks, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Five fewer states reported high flu activity levels in the first week of January than the 29 that reported high activity levels in the last week of December, according to the CDC's weekly flu report. This week, 24 states reported high illness levels, 16 reported moderate levels, five reported low levels and one reported minimal levels, suggesting that the flu season peaked in the last week of December.

"It may be decreasing in some areas, but that's hard to predict," CDC Director Dr. Thomas Frieden said in a Friday morning teleconference. "Trends only in the next week or two will show whether we have in fact crossed the peak."

The flu season usually peaks in February or March, not December, said Dr. Jon Abramson, who specializes in pediatric infectious diseases at Wake Forest Baptist Health in North Carolina. He said the season started early with a dominant H3N2 strain, which was last seen a decade ago, in 2002-03. That year, the flu season also ended early.

Click here to see how this flu season stacks up against other years.

Cheryl Evans/The Arizona Republic/AP Photo

Increasing Flu Cases: Best Measures to Ensure Your Family's Health Watch Video

Because of the holiday season, Frieden said the data may have been skewed.

For instance, Connecticut appeared to be having a lighter flu season than other northeastern states at the end of December, but the state said it could have been a result of college winter break. College student health centers account for a large percentage of flu reports in Connecticut, but they've been closed since the fall semester ended, said William Gerrish, a spokesman for the state's department of public health.

The flu season arrived about a month early this year in parts of the South and the East, but it may only just be starting to take hold of states in the West, Frieden said. California is still showing "minimal" flu on the CDC's map, but that doesn't mean it will stay that way.

Click here to read about how flu has little to do with cold weather.

"It's not surprising. Influenza ebbs and flows during the flu season," Frieden said. "The only thing predictable about the flu is that it is unpredictable."

Dr. William Schaffner, chair of preventive medicine at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville, Tenn., said he was expecting California's seeming good luck with the flu to be over this week.

"Flu is fickle, we say," Schaffner said. "Influenza can be spotty. It can be more severe in one community than another for reasons incompletely understood."

Early CDC estimates indicate that this year's flu vaccine is 62 percent effective, meaning people who have been vaccinated are 62 percent less likely to need to see a doctor for flu treatment, Frieden said.

Although the shot has been generally believed to be more effective for children than adults, there's not enough data this year to draw conclusions yet.

"The flu vaccine is far from perfect, but it's still by far the best tool we have to prevent flu," Frieden said, adding that most of the 130 million vaccine doses have already been administered. "We're hearing of shortages of the vaccine, so if you haven't been vaccinated and want to be, it's better late than never."

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Bibles used by King, Lincoln to be part of Obama’s second inauguration

Martin Luther King Jr. carried a black leather King James Bible on his journeys as a young pastor starting out in Montgomery, Ala. He turned to this “traveling Bible” for inspiration, his family says, as he fought for freedom and equality.

President Obama will put his hand over King’s well-worn Bible at his public swearing-in at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 21, the holiday celebrating the birthday of the slain civil rights leader. King’s Bible will be stacked with the burgundy velvet and gilded Bible used by President Abraham Lincoln at his first inauguration.

Obama chose the Lincoln Bible for his inauguration in 2009, making him the first president to do so since it was initially used in 1861. President Harry S. Truman also used two Bibles, as did Dwight D. Eisenhower and Richard M. Nixon.

The announcement about the Bibles, to be made publicly Thursday, is part of the slow unspooling of inaugural details that fascinates lovers of ceremonial Americana.

Presidential inaugurations have become more filled with rites, and such decisions are especially weighty now at a time when the White House is aware that Americans are struggling to come together.

King’s family said in a statement that he would be “deeply moved” to see Obama use the traveling Bible on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, “and we hope it can be a source of strength for the President as he begins his second term.”

“With the Inauguration less than two weeks away, we join Americans across the country in embracing this opportunity to celebrate how far we have come, honor the legacy of Martin Luther King Jr. through service, and rededicate ourselves to the work ahead,” the statement added.

According to the Presidential Inaugural Committee, which organizes the swearing-in ceremony, King traveled with various books, including this Bible. “It was used for inspiration and preparing sermons and speeches, including during Dr. King’s time as pastor of Dexter Avenue Baptist Church” in Montgomery, the committee said in a statement.

Obama and Vice President Biden will be sworn in privately on Sunday, Jan. 20 — the date required by the Constitution. For that first ceremony, Obama will use the family Bible of his wife’s family. According to the inaugural committee, that Bible “was a gift from the First Lady’s father, Fraser Robinson III, to his mother, LaVaughn Delores Robinson, on Mother’s Day in 1958. Mrs. Robinson was the first African-American woman manager of a Moody Bible Institute’s bookstore.” That Bible was the only one Michelle Obama’s grandmother used after that, a committee statement said.

For both the private and then the Monday public ceremonies, Biden will be sworn in with a Bible that has been in his family since 1893: a five-inch-thick volume with a Celtic cross on the cover. He also used it for his swearings-in as a U.S. senator and in 2009 as vice president.

Some aspects of the inaugural ceremony have changed slightly over the decades. Having official prayers offered dates only to the 1930s, historians say. But presidents have used Bibles to be sworn in since George Washington, even though the Constitution does not require it. The Constitution also does not require the phrase “So help me God” at the end, but that has become standard, said Donald Ritchie, the historian of the U.S. Senate.

He also noted that the image of the president’s spouse holding the Bible dates only to Lady Bird Johnson doing so in 1965.

Chief justices of the Supreme Court now traditionally deliver the oath, but Ritchie said any federal official can do so.

Several non-Christian members of Congress have recently used other scriptures, including Rep. Keith Ellison, the first Muslim elected to Congress, in 2007. The Minnesota Democrat used a Koran owned by Thomas Jefferson.

Obama veered from tradition in one key aspect of the ceremony: He invited Myrlie Evers-Williams, widow of slain civil rights figure Medgar Evers, to deliver the invocation prayer. It will be the first time a woman, and a layperson rather than clergy, has done so.

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